Calibrated Forecasting and Merging

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Calibrated Forecasting and Merging

Consider a finite-state stochastic process governed by an unknown objective probability distribution. Observing the system, a forecaster assigns subjective probabilities to future states. The resulting subjective forecast merges to the objective distribution if, with time, the forecasted probabilities converge to the Ž . correct but unknown probabilities. The forecast is calibrated if observed ...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Games and Economic Behavior

سال: 1999

ISSN: 0899-8256

DOI: 10.1006/game.1998.0608